Update: Potential impacts of COVID-19 on the UK Waste Sector

Given the rate at which our way of living in the UK has changed in recent weeks, it was with some trepidation that, in response to requests from a number of stakeholders, we prepared during the week of 23rd March an initial Briefing Report on the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the UK waste sector.

The Briefing Report splits into three specific elements:

An analysis of the short term impact of the Government’s actions to slow down the spread of the virus, with a particular emphasis on the effects on Residual Waste in England. This section of the report develops an assumed baseline which reflects the impact, on an annualised basis, of current restrictions.

Using this analysis, an assessment of the potential quarter-by-quarter evolution of the market in the period to the end of 2021;

Using third party GDP projections, a preliminary assessment of the potential medium to long term economic impacts of the virus on the UK Residual C&I Waste market.

As the impact of the COVID-19 virus, and the UK Government’s response to it evolves, our intention is to review the Briefing Report regularly and update it as necessary. And on 15 April we published a second version of the report to reflect the most recent available information – in particular the findings of the ADEPT survey.

Now as we approach the end of May, we have released today a third version which reflects subsequent developments in the market. We now have a reasonable understanding on the short term impacts of the lockdown and the key issues relating to the rate at which tonnages will recover as lockdown measures are eased and, increasingly significantly, the longer term impact of the certain recession on Residual Waste tonnages.

This latest Briefing Report: COVID-19 and UK Waste Sector – Potential Impacts (Version 3) can be downloaded free of charge from https://www.tolvik.com/published-reports/