Tolvik has undertaken a study of near term Residual Waste market in London and the South East and released this week a detailed 27 page report.

The key findings are:

  • The Central scenario assumes modest increases in Household Waste recycling rates, some disruption in RDF Exports and the construction of 1.4Mt of new EfW capacity by 2025. In this scenario it is projected that by 2025 there could be a cumulative shortfall of 4.66Mt in Non-Hazardous Landfill capacity.
  • For the optimist assuming a progressive increase in recycling, significantly greater large scale EfW capacity, the existing Non-Hazardous Landfill capacity is likely to last until just after 2025.
  • On the other hand, a pessimist could point to limited additional EfW capacity, a major reduction in RDF exports post Brexit with a corresponding capacity shortfall for Non-Hazardous Landfills which is more than double that projected in Central scenario.
  • There is little doubt that for the local authorities south of the Thames, the currently available Non-Hazardous landfill capacity will almost certainly be exhausted before 2025.
  • The corresponding additional movement of waste round the M25 to the north of London will come at a cost – both economic and environmental – an additional 20,000 vehicle movements each year.
  • There will therefore continue to be a need for Non-Hazardous Landfill in London and the South East – to bridge the gap between Residual Waste generated and the capacity available to treat it and also to provide a disposal option for specialist waste for which there is no alternative waste management solution.

Given the very real prospect of a shortfall in Non-Hazardous Landfill capacity the report outlines potential options available to investors, operators and regulators.

The full report and a summary extract is available to download from http://www.tolvik.com/reports/